prediction - Kelford Inc.

Nobody knows what happens next. No one’s predictions will be very accurate. We’ll look back and wonder how it wasn’t obvious, but nothing that seems obvious now is likely to be right.

Joel Kelly

Nov 9, 2020

Weekly Labs action advantage avoidance certainty change control decision flexibility patience persistence preparation prediction reality surprise uncertainty

You’ve already hit the iceberg

A common mistake when things go wrong is to spend time thinking about how they could have gone. Or how we’d hoped things would turn out.

Joel Kelly

Jul 31, 2020

Weekly Labs action strategy decision mistake uncertainty preparation first principles complexity fallacy tools structure model framework crisis failure prediction

If this then that, and if that, then what?

Everyone who knows me well knows there’s one rule I live by. They know it because I’m always saying it. So often it’s probably their least favorite phrase. But I’ll keep saying it: If this then that, and if that, then what?

Joel Kelly

Jul 24, 2020